Friday, March 21, 2008

The Full Belmonty

24 hours later and I still haven't caught my breath...Allow me to catch it and sum up this game prior to the West Virginia game...



PS - In Gerald Henderson I trust

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

BRBI

College basketball has the RPI. Dickie V has the VBDI (Vitale Bald Dome Index). As for me, I have the BRBI (Bleed Royal Blue Index). For the first time in a number of years, I really believe the committee got it right. Sure, I can gripe with Arizona State not getting in despite beating Arizona twice and having a better overall record in the Pac-10 but let's face it, a 300+ non-conference schedule should land you in the NIT.

As for the Field of 65 (well 64 now, sorry Coppin State), here's a BRBI breakdown of each region:

East (Charlotte)

Should win: North Carolina.

Why? Carolina has the POY in Tyler Hansbrough and they have Ty Lawson back and almost healthy running the point. With Lawson in the lineup, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green become so much more dangerous. Also, it doesn't help that they wouldn't leave the state of North Carolina before heading to San Antonio.

Why Not? One word, defense. Carolina tends to play defense only when they want to play defense (see the last 5 minutes at Cameron). However, if they don't commit themselves on the defensive end, they can be picked off by a number of teams.

Most Vulnerable High Seed: Tennessee

Why? The Volunteers shoot way too many bad shots and like we saw last year against Ohio State, cannot protect leads in crunch time. The Vols best shooter, Chris Lofton, has been up and down all year. Also, if teams beat their pressure, they are a below average half court defensive team.

Also, a trip to San Antonio seems unlikely with the possible road of Butler, Louisville, and UNC (on the road) to get there. Butler knocked off the Vols in the Preseason NIT last year by making Tennessee a half court team. Louisville, to me, is a more talented version of Tennessee and with David Padgett, they are better than the Vols. Finally, if Tennessee can escape those games, UNC will most likely loom. Good luck.

Possible Upsets:

George Mason over Notre Dame: We all know what Mason did two years ago during their miraculous run to the Final 4. Well, a few pieces from that team still exist in Will Thomas and Folarin Campbell. I think Mike Brey has his best team ever in South Bend but GMU won't be easy to deal with.

Butler over Tennessee (2nd Round): Butler is loaded with experience and they make teams play their pace. If they do that to Tennessee, watch out Bruce Pearl!

BRB pick: North Carolina

Midwest (Detroit)

Should win: Kansas

Why? Kansas is the deepest, most talented team in the country (by far). They really don't have a weakness and if they do have one, it's that they are too balanced (if that's possible). Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson are tough to stop down low and if you double in the post, the likes of Chalmers, Rush, Collins, and Robinson will burn you from the outside.

Why Not? Bill Self. Self has done a great job assembling such a great pool of talent in Lawrence but does he have what it takes to get his team to a Final 4? After back to back losses to Bucknell and Bradley in the first round, the Jayhawks bounced back and made it to the Elite 8 only to bow out against UCLA in a practical road game.

Most Vulnerable High Seed: Wisconsin

Why? The Big 10 isn't that good and although they should get past CSF in the first round, they will be severely outclassed athletically in the next round playing either USC or Kansas State. Wisconsin can flat out defend and Bo Ryan does more with less than any coach in America. However, they can't score and I don't see a go-to guy when they need a big basket. The Badger faithful can't rely on too many more Brian Butch bank shots.

Possible Upsets:

Villanova over Clemson: In November, this would not have been an upset. Villanova came into the year over hyped with Scottie Reynolds returning for another season and Corey Stokes coming in as a highly-touted freshman. Nova was the last team in the Tournament field and whether they treat this as a reprieve on their season or continue their inconsistency remains to be seen. Clemson is a squad but let's face it, they have no experience and they struggle hitting free throws. Plus, I get a little weary that so many people are on the Clemson bandwagon.

Kansas State over USC: Two words, Michael Beasley.

BRB pick: Kansas

South (Houston)

Should win: Toss up

This region can go many different ways in my estimation. Memphis can definitely win it but I just don't trust them in a big spot. If they do make it to San Antonio, D. Rose will carry them, not Chris Douglas-Roberts.

Texas, although they are young, is probably the favorite to come out of this bracket for me because they will play their possible Sweet 16/Elite 8 games in Houston.

Stanford & Pittsburgh can't be counted out as well. With Stanford, it begins and ends with Brook Lopez. If the Cardinal get anything out of their perimeter, they are very hard to beat. As for Pitt, they have a mojo about them that could carry them all the way to San Antonio.

Most Vulnerable High Seed: Memphis

Why? Competition, competition, competition. Sure, the Tigers overcame a strong non-conference schedule and only suffered one blemish this season but let's face it, Conference USA is practically a Division II conference. The Tigers are very athletic but they lack the basketball IQ that other teams in this bracket have. If there is a #1 that could go down in the 1st weekend, it's Memphis.

Possible Upsets:

Temple over Michigan State: There are a number of coaches known as motivators even more so than good X's and O's guys, Tom Izzo is one of those guys. However, Temple is red hot after winning the A-10 Tournament and Dionte Christmas is the best scorer you've never heard of. Will Christmas come early for Temple fans?

Mississippi State over Memphis: If the Bulldogs can get by Oregon, which I'm still not sure they can, they have the grit and style of play the frustrate the Tigers and end Memphis' dreams of a title. Jamont Gordon is a versatile swing guard, Ben "Don't call me Tyler" Hansbrough can knock down open shots off the bench, Charles Rhodes is a load down low, and Varnardo is the college version of Dikembe Mutumbo around the basket.

BRB Pick: Texas or Pitt (still undecided)

West (Phoenix)

Should win: UCLA

Why? UCLA is the most experienced team in college basketball coming off of two consecutive Final 4 appearances. The Bruins inability to score has hurt them the last two years but the addition of super frosh Kevin Love should solve that problem once the ball is tipped on Thursday. UCLA has one of the best coaches in the country, has a great tandem of guards with Collison and Westbrook, and they play tenacious defense.

Why not? Injuries to LR Mbah Mutae and Kevin Love could derail UCLA's chances at a third consecutive Final 4. Also, Josh Shipp, who earlier in the year filled in nicely for the departed Aaron Affalo, seems to lack confidence in his jump shot.

Most Vulnerable High Seed: Duke

Why? I know, I know. I hate to say it but the Dukies are what they are. If they hit their 3's, they can cut down the nets and beat anyone in the country. If they shoot it like they did against Clemson, they could get bounced by anyone (maybe not Belmont). Assuming Duke takes down Belmont, they will have to execute at a high level against either West Virginia or Arizona to advance to the next weekend.

Possible Upsets:

Georgia over Xavier: Xavier is a good squad with tremendous guard play, especially at the mid-major level. However, if there is a hotter, more inspired team than Georgia, let me know. Georgia pulled off a miracle nothing short of walking on water by winning 4 games is 3, yes 3 days to receive an automatic bid.

Arizona over Duke: Like Mississippi State, I'm not sure Arizona will get by their first round opponent but if they do, they can give the Devils all they want and more. Jerryd Bayless is the type of penetrating north-south guard that Duke struggles with, Chase Buddinger can flat out shoot, and Jordan Hill will be a load down low, especially for the undersized Blue Devils.

BRB pick: UCLA (over Duke in the Elite 8)

Final 4: UNC v. Kansas/Texas or Pitt v. UCLA

UNC v. Kansas: Although North Carolina has all of the ingredients to win a National Championship, their inability to play consistent defense should plague them against Kansas. Kansas' balance and big monsters down low should be enough to edge the Tar Heels.

Texas or Pitt v. UCLA: It really doesn't matter who I pick from the South bracket because I love UCLA's coach, defense, and winning ora. Although Texas beat UCLA earlier this season, I like UCLA over Texas. As for Pitt, UCLA is a much more talented version of Pitt and their former coach should get his squad through to the championship.

Kansas v. UCLA: I agonized over this pick. I believe these are the two best teams in the country and it would only be fitting for them to battle it out for the national championship. This would be a rematch of the West Regional Final last year but I think Kansas would get some revenge and overwhelm UCLA with their size and strength. I truly believe Ben Howland is the next version of Coach K and like Coach K, he may need to get to a number of Final 4's before actually winning the whole thing. Don't worry Bruin fans, he will get his one of these years, especially with Jru Holiday on the way to LA next year.

Kansas 80
UCLA 76

Hopefully, Duke can do better than I predicted but I just can't see them shooting the ball well 6 consecutive games. There will be a Clemson type shooting game in this tournament and if they can win despite that then they could go far. However, I strongly believe that once that game comes, Duke's season ends in heartbreaking fashion.

We'll see. Merry Madness!

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Duke #2 Seed Out West

I don't want to say I told you so but I did. After Duke's loss to Clemson, I figured Duke would be the weakest #2 seed. The surprising thing about Duke's seeding was the site of the 1st and 2nd Round games. I thought it was a foregone conclusion that Duke would play in Raleigh but the committee switched up and punished Duke and G'Town for conference tournament losses. Instead of Duke going to Raleigh, they go to Washington D.C. and instead of G'Town going to Washington D.C., they go to Raleigh. Although Duke will now have to fly to their games instead of taking a short bus ride, I think this actually works better for Duke because Raleigh would be full of Carolina fans hence making it a road game.

As for the bracket, I'm neither happy nor disappointed because all this bracket reaffirms is what I've said on BRB all year long, Duke can get bounced in the first weekend or they can go to San Antonio and I still stand by that notion. All kidding aside, I think Duke should handle Belmont, even though they do have a great deal of experience. However, a team with 8 McDonald's All-Americans should beat a school named after a racetrack.

So, assuming Duke defeats Belmont, they get a tough matchup either way, playing West Virginia or Arizona. West Virginia has been playing good basketball and Joe Alexander is as versatile as any player in the nation. He can go inside and step outside with the best of them. I believe the last time the Huggy bear has faced Coach K was in the 1998 Great Alaskan Shootout, when Melvin Levitt beat Duke with a dunk at the buzzer, handing the Devils one of their two losses on the year. As for Arizona, they have a great deal of talent and although they probably should've been left out and Arizona State should've gotten in, if they get hot, they will make a run. With Bayless and Buddinger, Duke would struggle to defend those guys but the guy who would beat them, if they beat Duke, is Jordan Hill down low.

If the shots are falling, Duke should advance to Phoenix where they could play the likes of Xavier, Purdue, Baylor. Although Xavier has the type of guard quickness that usually upsets Duke, I would like the Devils in that matchup. Purdue is a solid squad and Matt Painter is a candidate for COY but I believe their inexperience would show against Duke. As for Baylor, what a great story Scott Drew has built down there after that program was left for dead after the Dave Bliss era filled with murder, lies and corruption. Despite the good story, Duke would be favored and should move on to play UCLA.

If Duke gets to the Elite 8 and sees UCLA, this is where the dream should end for the Blue Devils. I believe UCLA has too much championship experience, quick guards, and no answer for the big trees down low. UCLA will defend the hell out of the perimeter and to me, they are a more talented, more experienced Pittsburgh team and we all know how Duke struggled with them.

Much more later on but if you held a gun to my head, I would pick Duke to the Elite 8 and pick UCLA to move onto the Final 4.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Clem-Son of a...

Just a quick reminder, I will be live blogging the Duke/UNC Part III on Wral tomorrow. Oh wait, Clemson ruined those plans and although UNC was able to escape an upset bid, Duke could not. I never call out Duke's effort but let's face it, this team came out lethargic and slept walked through the first half. They were sloppy with the ball, they took bad shots, and for some reason, continued to double in the post only to give up an open layup.

As I've stated throughout the year, Duke's lucky number is 3 not 7 and today it was very unlucky and led to a defeat. They shot 20% from the 3-point line and missed a number of open looks. Also, in the first half, Duke uncharacteristically gave up a number of open looks to Terrence Oglesby and Cliff Hammonds.

Clemson, who is the absolute worst free throw shooting in Division I basketball, seems to make them against Duke and fouling Cliff Hammonds, who shoots 43%, iced the game from the free throw line, looking like Rick Barry in the process. Congratulations to Clemson on practically winning a home game for them considering every fan in the building was a Clemson fan or a North Carolina fan, who is obviously rooting against Duke.

I would've loved to see Duke/UNC for a third time but if I'm a Carolina fan, I don't like this matchup and really wouldn't have rooted for it. I know Duke is their archrival but UNC matches up much better against Duke than they do against Clemson. I see Clemson exercising some demons again tomorrow and knocking off UNC in a nailbiter.

Getting back to Duke, they shot dreadfully and with Kyle Singler struggling, it will be hard to have a long extended run in the NCAA Tournament. I know it's tough to hear but if they don't hit a great deal of 3's, they can't beat average to good teams, they just can't. If they shoot it like they did against UNC in Chapel Hill, they can cut down the nets. The problem is that Kyle Singler looks exhausted and the only thing worse than his play the last two games is that awful opera singer ESPN sollicited for the ACC Tournament (how dreadful is that??)

Next up for Duke is the NCAA Tournament, either on Thursday or Friday. They will either be one of the last two 2 seeds so expect to go out West and play in UCLA's bracket or to be one of the better 3 seeds. I think Duke's overall body of work, despite a 5-4 record in their last 9, should give them a #2 seed. If I had to guess, I see Duke landing as the #2 out West where they would probably have to go through UCLA in Anaheim to go to the Final 4. Good Luck!

Much, much, much more after the brackets come out...

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Georgia Tech - Next Up

Duke will play Georgia Tech tomorrow night in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. The Jackets ended the spectacular career of Sean Singletary tonight.



Tech is under .500 this year and they have a few seniors that won't want that to be their last game. Look for a spirited effort for Tech but I see Duke pulling away late in the game.



We'll see...

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

SINGing His Praise...

Kyle Singler was named ACC Freshman of the Year today. No surprise here...My man crush enjoyed a stellar rookie campaign and is one of the biggest reasons why Duke has turned a disappointing 22-11 campaign a year ago into a 26-4 spectacular season.

Congrats to Singler and here's to another 3 years at Duke (please...)

Monday, March 10, 2008

Nelson - 1st Team All-ACC

DeMarcus Nelson earned All-ACC honors today along with Tyler Hansbrough, Tyrese Rice, Sean Singletary, and Jack McClinton. Nelson also made the All-ACC Defensive team...

Greg Paulus earned 3rd team All-ACC honors as did Kyle Singler, as a freshman...

Congrats to those guys