Duke #23 in Katz's First Look At 2007-08

Andy Katz has Duke as #23 in his first poll after the national championship game. Last year, he had them at #11 and that was after the departure of All-Americans JJ Redick and Shelden Williams. This just shows how much this season hurt the perception of the Duke empire. According to Katz, he gives off the impression he had to beg to get Duke on the list at all after McRoberts decided to bolt to the NBA. I'm not saying he's completely off here but I think Duke will be better than that when all is said and done even if Patrick Patterson never steps foot on campus. Assuming Patterson goes to Florida, which is the sexy school right now, Duke's glaring weakness will be down low. Can the combination of Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek, David McClure and at times, newcomer Kyle Singler stop the bleeding? I think only time will tell. If all of these guys hang around, which without Patterson seems likely, I think Thomas will have a breakout season. I think he will come in with a chip on his shoulder from last year and really show why Duke was willing to wait until the 11th hour for his decision to come to Durham last season. I never think Brian Zoubek will realize his potential at Duke. The system doesn't have room for a slow-footed, traditional 7 footer who plays with his back to the basket. McClure, unless he improves his offense dramatically, should be an intangibles guy again next year but don't look for him to emerge out of his shell any time soon.

The X-factor, assuming Patterson bolts to Florida, will be Singler. He has to be as good as advertised for Duke to remain in the national spotlight. I think the backcourt will be fine. Assuming no injuries, I like the trio of Paulus, Sheyer, and newcomer Nolan Smith. I think Duke is absolutely loaded at that 3rd guard/Small Forward position with DeMarcus Nelson being their defensive stopper, Gerald Henderson will be the best player on this team next season (you heard it here)and newcomer Taylor King bringing a sweet touch off the bench. In fact, at positions 1-3, Duke is as talented and deep as any team in the country. If Patterson surprises us and comes to Duke for the television exposure, this team has to shoot up the list to at least #15.

Elsewhere, Katz has Kansas as the #1 team in the country. Assuming what we think we know right now, I can't disagree with that at all. He has UCLA as #2, who if I had to pick a champion for next year right now, it would be UCLA. I just think Afflalo will be back because Corey Brewer killed him again, Collison will be better and if Kevin Love is as good as advertised, they will be improved offensively in the post, a problem that plagued them against Florida.

Katz has Carolina at #3. That I don't disagree with. I do disagree with his notion that they may keep all of their players. Brandon Wright is gone. That is a foregone conclusion to me. He is a lock at #3, he has to go. If reports are correct, Ty Lawson stopped going to class because he decided in February that he's gone. I do think they will keep Hansbrough because Pyscho T is smart enough to realize he's a collegiate star and nothing more than a role player in the NBA. Even with those departures, they will solid. If Katz is correct, there is no way Carolina isn't the #1 team come November. No way!

I have an issue with Ohio State at #5. Oden has already packed his bags and he won't be attending History of Rockin Roll class anymore. He will be the #1 pick and enjoy a hall of fame career in the pros. If Mike Conley is smart, he bounces to the pros on Oden's coattails in a weak PG draft. Next year, the draft will be loaded with guards like OJ Mayo, Derrick Rose, Eric Gordon etc...

If USC returns all of their players and add Mayo then there is no reason USC isn't ranked higher than UCLA. However, I definitely think they will lose Nick Young and Taj Gibson would be well-advised to bounce after he dominated Hansbrough in the Sweet 16. Gabe Pruitt should return. Him and Mayo make a great 1-2 punch.

Teams I don't like ahead of Duke:
Washington State (I need more than a year to see if this program is legit)
Gonzaga (Katz is assuming Heytfelt is coming back, I'm not so sure and Few may bolt to Kentucky)
Arizona (I think they will lose Williams and possibly Buddinger. They already lose Shakur and Radenovic, Lute is getting old)
Oregon (Watch the Florida game, Aaron Brooks made this team go, he's gone now. The rest of the team has very good supporting players, that's it)
Texas (Durant is gone, need I say more)
Pitt (They lost their inside game, are you really putting Levance Fields ahead of 8 McDonald's All-Americans at Duke?)
Texas A&M (They need to prove to me that Acie Law wasn't everything to that team because without him, I think you have Oregon, a team full of good supporting players, that's it)

My surprise team getting no play for 2007-08: NC State

Yeah, they lose Atsur but I haven't anything about Costner bouncing and he's a flat-out stud. I love their Top 6 in addition to their big-time McDonald's All-American they just got.

I also love Syracuse to bounce back off of a horrific snub from the NCAA's. They lose Nichols but they get as good of an incoming tandem plus Paul Harris will emerge as a star.