Bright Future

My brother and I sat and watched Oak Hill Academy play last night and by the night's end, we were giddy about Duke's future. Why? Because Blue Devil commit Nolan Smith was absolutely amazing last night. He showed off his beautiful shooting stroke and coupled that with outstanding explosiveness to the basket. Smith clearly fits that Duke mold of being a guard who can either play the 1 or the 2. So, take Smith along with fellow commits Kyle Singler and Taylor King and possibly Patrick Patterson and Duke fans will be going crazy next year. I've said it all along, I just want this Duke team to keep getting better each day they play together and if McRoberts stays in Durham, they wouldn't lose anyone off this year's team. I hate to say it but I see someone prominent on this year's team transferring at year end because of concerns for playing time.

Holy Crap

Duke defeated Holy Cross last night 57-45 in a less than stellar performance. Luckily for them, their defense is still lights out and that's good considering they couldn't throw the ball into the Atlantic Ocean. In the 1st Half, the Blue Devils played uninspired and frankly stupid basketball, committing 12 turnovers. The 2nd Half was a much different story. The Blue Devils came out inspired, dove for loose balls, hit some big shots, and grabbed a number of key rebounds. It also helped that they got into the bonus with 12 minutes to go in the game. Also, they had a putrid night from the free-throw line. With all that said, they won and that's the most important thing.

Listen, they are coming off two good home wins against Indiana and Georgetown and they came out flat tonight and it cost them in the 1st Half. Also, this is their week before finals where projects, homework, and last minute tests are given so maybe, they were mentally out of it. Anyone who has went to college, knows that the week before finals week may actually be tougher than the finals week itself. Also, although Holy Cross isn't in the ilk of a North Carolina or a UCLA, they are a consistent, well-coached program which has enjoyed a great deal of success over the last decade. Remember, the Crusaders only lost to Syracuse by 8 in the Carrier Dome earlier in the year so this team does have some talent.

After a great 2nd Half against Georgetown, Greg Paulus had another tough game and when Duke went on a 20-4 run in the 2nd Half last night, he was on the bench. Even though Dickie V is grossly annoying, he's right about Paulus. The success of this team this year depends on how well Paulus plays. Josh McRoberts, although he had 13 points, was a virtual non-factor on the offensive end and he couldn't buy a free-throw in this game, shooting 3 for 10. However, the great thing about Josh is that he can impact a game in so many different ways when it's not there offensively and he did last night, playing great defense and distributing the ball nicely. To me, the MVP of the game was Gerald Henderson. Henderson hit two big-time 3-pointers during that 20-4 run and he sparked the biggest play of the game when he grabbed an offensive rebound off a Zoubek miss from the free-throw line and kicked it out to DeMarcus Nelson for a 3-pointer that made it 38-34.

I feel like I've been saying this an awful lot this year but a win is a win. People are going crazy down in Durham, reporters are questioning whether Coach K should be taking more timeouts and the team is 8-1! They've beaten two Top 25 teams, Air Force and Georgetown and they are playing the best defense in the nation right now, outside of Pasadena, but still this young team has come under scrutiny. Get over it! Like Coach K said, this will not be a smooth car ride this year, it will be a roller coaster, lots of peaks and valleys. This team is going to lose 8-10 games this year but they will make the tournament.

Next up is Cindarella, George Mason on Saturday. Listen, they shouldn't be taken lightly because Campbell and Thomas, both intricate parts of their Final 4 team last year, are back scoring 17 and 14 points a game respectively. Also, Jim Larranega established himself as a great motivator last year (just ask MSU, UNC, Wichita State, and UCONN). He convinced his players that the CAA stood for the "Connecticut Assassin Association" last year and it worked so this is not a lock by any means. In addition, this game is at noon on Saturday and any Blue Devil fan knows that they never play well at noon for whatever reason. Last year, they needed OT to beat Florida State 97-96 in a noon game after they played that gut-wrenching thriller against BC at BC when every Boston celebrity in history showed up. BUT, since Duke very rarely follows up an uninspired performance with another one, I look for the Blue Devils to win comfortably.

Prediction: Duke 62 George Mason 49

Contenders

This blog so far has been dedicated to the ups and downs Duke has endured over the first eight games of the season. However, believe it or not, there is college basketball being played outside of Durham these days. So, with that, let's break down my so-called "contenders" to not only go dancing in March but end up in Atlanta for the Final 4. Here is the Top 25 as of today.

Contenders to cut down the nets in Atlanta: UCLA, UNC, Ohio State, Florida

Okay, now I'm not saying some other team in the country cannot win the National Title but these four teams, to me, are the odds on favorites to cut down the nets. UCLA, the current #1 team in the nation, gets the nod for a few reasons. First, they can flat out defend better than any other team in the country (even Duke). Second, they have a good inside-outside game. Finally, they have a tremendous coach and they have Final 4 experience from last year. UNC, my pick to win the National Title this year (even though I'd rather get an STD than them actually win it), gets the nod from me because they are clearly the most talented and deepest team in the country. Tyler Hansborough is vastly overrated but Brandon Wright will hide Hansborough's weaknesses playing next to him all year. Also, say whatever you want, but Roy Williams is one of the best coaches in the nation and has shown that he can get over the hump (see 2005). Ohio State is the most intriguing team in the nation with the arrival of Greg Oden, clearly a man amongst boys. I had my doubts about Ohio State earlier in the year but seeing them play so well without Oden in the Dean Dome last week makes me think they could win it this year especially if Oden is as good as advertised. Finally, Florida is an obvious team on this list because they are the defending champions and return all five starters from their National Championship team of a year ago. Joakim Noah is nasty, both in the good basketball way and in the bad physical way, and Corey Brewer is the best defender in the nation. I stand by my prediction at the beginning of the year that Florida would not win the National Title because I don't trust Billy the Kid in a big spot when there are expectations for his team. In the past, whenever Florida had high expectations, they fell apart like a cheap suit.

Contenders to make a run to Atlanta: Pittsburgh, Marquette, Kansas, LSU, Gonzaga, Duke, Arizona

Outside of the Big 4 above, I like these teams, if everything breaks right, to make a run to Atlanta. Pittsburgh, even without the ultimate criminal, Carl Krauser, who may be playing in Reikart's Island right now, always has a chance to get to the Final 4 because of their defensive prowess. They play great defense, they return Aaron Gray, who is soft but still is 7 foot, and I think they may have a little destiny on their side because of what happened to Coach Dixon's sister over the summer. Marquette, even though they had a brutal loss to ND State last weekend, is a team that I really like because of their tremendous guard play especially from the collegiate King James, Dominic James. I saw how he dissected Duke at the end of that game and he has the ability to get to the rim at will. That, coupled with an athletic team and one of the best young coaches in the sport, Tom Crean, could surprise people come March and end up in Atlanta. Kansas, even though they have lost to Oral Roberts and DePaul this year, showed they have the potential to make a deep run in the tournament with their win over Florida in Vegas a few weeks ago. They are loaded with talent at every position but one may question if they could rebound after two consecutive first round exits in the NCAA Tournament under Bill Self to Bucknell and Bradley. LSU, even though they will miss Darrell Mitchell's leadership and Tyrus Thomas' defense, could go deep with their athleticism and "Big Baby" Davis. They, like Marquette, have the ability to lose in the 1st Round or go to the Final 4. Gonzaga, even though some idiot always picks them every year to win it (Seth Davis), has a legitimate shot to make a run this year. I actually like their balance this year more than last year with Josh Heytfelt emerging as a star. Duke, even though they are extremely young and inexperienced and couldn't throw the ball in the ocean, should have a chance to make a run come tournament time if 1) they continue to play lights-out defense and 2) Josh McRoberts steps up and asserts himself on the offensive end. Also, don't ever count out the all-time leader in NCAA Tournament victories, Coach K, because the last time I checked, he's a pretty decent coach. Finally, Arizona has impressed me this season. They took Illinois best shot and withstood that and they beat a very talented team in Louisville last night in the Jimmy V Classic. Lute Olsen is one of the best coaches in the nation, Marcus Williams and Radenovic is a great inside-outside duo, and if Mustafa Shakur, who gave Arizona less production than Tupac would've over the last 3 years, plays under control and with maturity, I like this team to do some special things come tourney time.

Mid-Majors who can make a run in the tournament: Butler, Wichita State, Air Force, Winthrop, Oral Roberts

This list could actually go on much further but these are teams are really like out of the mid-major conferences. Because of last year, every year from now on, people will ask who is this year's George Mason? Well, I don't think any mid-major will make it to the Final 4 this year. Butler, by virtue of their surprising Preseason NIT Championship, is already in the NCAA Tournament. The problem with Butler is that they won't surprise anybody come March and since they have so many marquee wins already, they will probably get a #8 or #9 seed, which means they would have to beat a #1 to get to the Sweet 16. Good Luck! Wichita State, like 4 or 5 other teams in the MVC, could go deep this year. Remember, last year the Shockers "shocked" the world and went to the Sweet 16 only to fall to George Mason. Air Force, to me, is the one mid-major team that could go to the Final 4 if everything broke right for them. They start 4 Seniors and a Junior, which is usually a recipe for success in the tourney, they play the "Princeton" offense that always gives opponents headaches, and they have an NBA Coach. The Falcons have beaten Stanford, Miami, Texas Tech, and Colorado (all on the road) by 25 points or more. The only loss they have this year is to Duke, which isn't embarassing at all. As for both Winthrop and Oral Roberts, I believe they are #14 or #15 seeds in the Tournament who can win a game, that's it but considering they come from small conferences like the Big South and the Mid-Continent, that would be impressive. Winthrop has taken UNC and Wisconsin down to the wire and Oral Roberts, of course, had that amazing win over Kansas on the road.

So, it's still early on and big-named teams are still playing cupcakes before conference play so names on this list will inevitably change but as of now, this is what I think. Hopefully, I am right about Duke though =)

One Year Ago Today...

December 4, 2005: I'm sick as a dog, I have the GMAT the next day, I'm nervous and I'm watching Duke cruise, in unspectacular fashion, to a victory over Virginia Tech. With 1:40 left, the Blue Devils were up 74-63 and I actually got ready to turn the television off and go to bed since I had an early day ahead of me. Good thing I didn't. After a series of turnovers by JJ and missed free throws by Shelden, VA Tech was only down 74-73, with the ball and they tipped in a missed shot with 1 second left to make it 75-74. My heart immediately went into my throat, I basically stamped my feet like a little kid and kept repeating "How do you lose to VA Tech at home?" During the timeout, the officials put .6 back on the clock, which at the time seemed inconsequential. The official handed the ball to Josh McRoberts, he faked the pass to the left and then fired a bullet to Sean Dockery, a few feet inside half court and the rest is history. That moment will forever be known as "The Shot Heard 'Round Garden City South"

Revenge Baby With a Capital 'A'

January 21, 2006: With Duke trailing by 3 and All-American and National Player of the Year JJ Redick already having 41 points, Greg Paulus dribbled the ball off of his leg and the game was over without JJ touching the ball, Georgetown 87 Duke 84.

December 2, 2006: A little less than eleven months later, Greg Paulus avenged his mistake by scoring 13 points (all in the 2nd Half) to lead the Blue Devils to a come from behind 61-52 win over Georgetown at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Paulus, who has been in the doghouse with most Blue Devil fans, including myself, came out in the 2nd Half inspired and it really showed in his play whether it was diving after loose balls, draining perimeter jumpers, and even fronting Roy Hibbert on defense at one point. Throughout the infantile stages of this season, one thing about Paulus is that he has been vocal and has tried to lead this team in the absence of any Senior leadership. However, last night, he led by example and that's the best way to lead.

After DeMarcus Nelson hit two quick 3-pointers to give Duke an early 6-2 lead, they went ice cold from the field with one of their seemingly vintage scoring droughts. This allowed Georgetown to not only come back but build a comfortable 9 point lead for most of the 1st Half. When the Blue Devils looked over matched, it was their All-American candidate Josh McRoberts who stepped up to keep them in it and Martynas Pocius, who has made a career of keeping his seat warm, gave the Blue Devils an offensive jolt with 2 big 3-pointers. In fact, Pocius played so well that he cracked the starting lineup at the beginning of the 2nd Half only to pick up two of the quickest fouls in the history of college basketball. To me, the biggest play of the game was at 49-49 when Paulus tipped a loose ball to himself and took it down the court for a layup to make it 51-49 and gave the Blue Devils the lead to stay.

After a quiet 1st Half, Jon Sheyer contributed 9 big points including a great drive and fake on Roy Hibbert. DeMarcus Nelson had 12 points but it seemed like Dan Shulman and Dickie V didn't mention his name once after the first few minutes unless it was for a turnover or an errand pass. So far this season, defense has been the name of the game and last night was no different. After Georgetown scored 34 points in the 1st Half, backdooring them to death, Duke really stepped it up defensively, holding the Hoyas to only 18 2nd Half points, and that ultimately led them to a victory.

To get back to McRoberts, I urge all five of you that read this to find me another big man in the country that is more versatile. The knock on McRoberts is that he's not aggressive enough but look at all of things he does for this team: he's probably their best ball handler outside of Paulus, they use him to break the press, he's definitely their best passer, he can shoot (even though his shot is a work-in-progress), he can flat out defend, and he's shooting 90% from the free-throw line through 8 games.

Overall, this was without a doubt the best win of the young season so far. This young team didn't fall apart, regrouped at halftime, and came out firing in the 2nd Half. Sure, the crowd certainly helped them out big time tonight but they held their composure and that is a good sign when they go on the road during their tough ACC Schedule. To stay on the crowd, how about Coach K at the end of the game basically imploring the crowd to get on their feet for this team? Personally, I love it. Some Duke-haters will say that K was showing up Georgetown but you could tell he was extremely proud of his young Blue Devils.

Next up for Duke is Holy Cross on Wednesday night at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Ohh and sure Duke plays most of their early season games at home but I don't want to hear it when I see Top 25 teams playing the likes of LA Monroe, Nicholls State, and Sacramento State. At least, Duke schedules tough teams (as evidenced in my post about a week ago). Even when they play a mid-major, it's not cupcake city. Holy Cross went into Syracuse at the Carrier Dome and only lost by 8 so the Blue Devils cannot let up after two very good wins this week. I look for Holy Cross to push Duke but in the end, the Blue Devils should prevail.

Prediction: Duke 74 Holy Cross 56

Tough "Break"

Just as I write something nice about Shav, I read this. According to some sources, this is so bad that it could be career threatening.

One Man's Trash is Another Man's Treasure

2004-2005 Duke Blue Devils Starting Lineup: Daniel Ewing, JJ Redick, Sean Dockery, Shavlik Randolph, Shelden Williams. Out of all of those people, who would you think would be playing the largest role on his NBA team right now? JJ Redick? Nope, he only has 2 points in his career and has been inactive most of the year. Shelden? Well, he is starting every game but he hasn't made his impact felt just yet. Daniel Ewing? Nope, he's averaging 2 points per game, mostly in garbage time for the Clippers. Sean Dockery? Nope, he's somewhere over in Europe hopefully polishing up his shot so he can make an NBA team in the years to come. That leaves Shavlik Randolph.

All five of you that read BRB know my absolute disdain for Shavlik during his years at Duke. Out of a class that included JJ Redick, a 2-time National Player of the Year, Shelden Williams, a two-time Defensive Player of the Year, Michael Thompson, a promising big man that transferred due to a severe lack of playing time, Sean Dockery, a guard who put up 62 in his last High School game against Dee Brown and Lee Melchionni (no career highlights to account for except for when he told AROD to shut up at the Duke/Miami game after he drained a 3 pointer), PF/C Shavlik Randolph came in as the stud of his class. Many scouts considered him a Top 5 pick in the NBA Draft coming out of high school. Believe it or not but there were actually comparisons out there between him and Larry Bird.

Shav then scored 20 points in his Duke debut and people like Dickie V were putting him on star watch. For three years, we looked and looked for him to become a star but it just never happened. Despite his shortcomings, I stayed loyal to Shav because after all, this is a collegiate program and the pressure to perform at Duke is so enormous but when he decided to abandon ship and leave his teammates behind after his Junior Year, he was no longer a Blue Devil to me.

Listen, since 1999, I've seen my share of early departures: Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, William Avery (is he dead?), Jason Williams, Mike Dunleavy, Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Shaun Livingston and I haven't disowned any of them (well, maybe Avery because his mom openly criticized Coach K when K said young William wasn't ready for the NBA...Hey, Mrs. Avery, the last time I checked your son is playing in Russia and barely cracking the starting lineup so enough of thissssss!!!). Why? Brand had nothing left to prove, he was the National Player of the Year that year, Maggette was furious at K for only playing 5 minutes in the championship and really, who could blame him?, Williams, Dunleavy and Boozer all get passes because they won a title, Deng leaving was a product of a weak draft and Livingston, well, I didn't get to know him so I can't get down on him.

But Shavlik leaving early? First, what was he smoking thinking he would be drafted? Second, way to quit on your team right before a year they had a legitimate chance to win a title. By the way Shav, we could've used your weakside defense last season against LSU. I don't like people who quit on their team and the fact that Coach K came out and said he was 100% in agreement with his decision to leave means Coach K was fed up with Shav. So, obviously Shav's name isn't called on Draft Night and you just wonder why he would leave (unless he thought he would lose P.T because of McRoberts coming in that year). Somehow, he lands in an NBA Training Camp and makes the team! So, I sit back and say, you know what, good for him. Then, months later I read that K used to berate him during practice to the point where he would go home and cry. Then, I read an article that says his father forced him to leave Duke and enter the Draft because he had lost his job and the Randolph family needed money. All of a sudden, this villain to me became a hero. Anyone who knows me, knows that I love people who step up and try to help their family life.

Now, Shavlik is in the STARTING LINEUP for the 76ers and whenever I see him on TV, he looks great and very happy. Just the other night, he scored 12 points and grabbed 6 rebounds against LeBron and the Cavs. Kudos Shav, you are a Blue Devil to me again!