Contenders

This blog so far has been dedicated to the ups and downs Duke has endured over the first eight games of the season. However, believe it or not, there is college basketball being played outside of Durham these days. So, with that, let's break down my so-called "contenders" to not only go dancing in March but end up in Atlanta for the Final 4. Here is the Top 25 as of today.

Contenders to cut down the nets in Atlanta: UCLA, UNC, Ohio State, Florida

Okay, now I'm not saying some other team in the country cannot win the National Title but these four teams, to me, are the odds on favorites to cut down the nets. UCLA, the current #1 team in the nation, gets the nod for a few reasons. First, they can flat out defend better than any other team in the country (even Duke). Second, they have a good inside-outside game. Finally, they have a tremendous coach and they have Final 4 experience from last year. UNC, my pick to win the National Title this year (even though I'd rather get an STD than them actually win it), gets the nod from me because they are clearly the most talented and deepest team in the country. Tyler Hansborough is vastly overrated but Brandon Wright will hide Hansborough's weaknesses playing next to him all year. Also, say whatever you want, but Roy Williams is one of the best coaches in the nation and has shown that he can get over the hump (see 2005). Ohio State is the most intriguing team in the nation with the arrival of Greg Oden, clearly a man amongst boys. I had my doubts about Ohio State earlier in the year but seeing them play so well without Oden in the Dean Dome last week makes me think they could win it this year especially if Oden is as good as advertised. Finally, Florida is an obvious team on this list because they are the defending champions and return all five starters from their National Championship team of a year ago. Joakim Noah is nasty, both in the good basketball way and in the bad physical way, and Corey Brewer is the best defender in the nation. I stand by my prediction at the beginning of the year that Florida would not win the National Title because I don't trust Billy the Kid in a big spot when there are expectations for his team. In the past, whenever Florida had high expectations, they fell apart like a cheap suit.

Contenders to make a run to Atlanta: Pittsburgh, Marquette, Kansas, LSU, Gonzaga, Duke, Arizona

Outside of the Big 4 above, I like these teams, if everything breaks right, to make a run to Atlanta. Pittsburgh, even without the ultimate criminal, Carl Krauser, who may be playing in Reikart's Island right now, always has a chance to get to the Final 4 because of their defensive prowess. They play great defense, they return Aaron Gray, who is soft but still is 7 foot, and I think they may have a little destiny on their side because of what happened to Coach Dixon's sister over the summer. Marquette, even though they had a brutal loss to ND State last weekend, is a team that I really like because of their tremendous guard play especially from the collegiate King James, Dominic James. I saw how he dissected Duke at the end of that game and he has the ability to get to the rim at will. That, coupled with an athletic team and one of the best young coaches in the sport, Tom Crean, could surprise people come March and end up in Atlanta. Kansas, even though they have lost to Oral Roberts and DePaul this year, showed they have the potential to make a deep run in the tournament with their win over Florida in Vegas a few weeks ago. They are loaded with talent at every position but one may question if they could rebound after two consecutive first round exits in the NCAA Tournament under Bill Self to Bucknell and Bradley. LSU, even though they will miss Darrell Mitchell's leadership and Tyrus Thomas' defense, could go deep with their athleticism and "Big Baby" Davis. They, like Marquette, have the ability to lose in the 1st Round or go to the Final 4. Gonzaga, even though some idiot always picks them every year to win it (Seth Davis), has a legitimate shot to make a run this year. I actually like their balance this year more than last year with Josh Heytfelt emerging as a star. Duke, even though they are extremely young and inexperienced and couldn't throw the ball in the ocean, should have a chance to make a run come tournament time if 1) they continue to play lights-out defense and 2) Josh McRoberts steps up and asserts himself on the offensive end. Also, don't ever count out the all-time leader in NCAA Tournament victories, Coach K, because the last time I checked, he's a pretty decent coach. Finally, Arizona has impressed me this season. They took Illinois best shot and withstood that and they beat a very talented team in Louisville last night in the Jimmy V Classic. Lute Olsen is one of the best coaches in the nation, Marcus Williams and Radenovic is a great inside-outside duo, and if Mustafa Shakur, who gave Arizona less production than Tupac would've over the last 3 years, plays under control and with maturity, I like this team to do some special things come tourney time.

Mid-Majors who can make a run in the tournament: Butler, Wichita State, Air Force, Winthrop, Oral Roberts

This list could actually go on much further but these are teams are really like out of the mid-major conferences. Because of last year, every year from now on, people will ask who is this year's George Mason? Well, I don't think any mid-major will make it to the Final 4 this year. Butler, by virtue of their surprising Preseason NIT Championship, is already in the NCAA Tournament. The problem with Butler is that they won't surprise anybody come March and since they have so many marquee wins already, they will probably get a #8 or #9 seed, which means they would have to beat a #1 to get to the Sweet 16. Good Luck! Wichita State, like 4 or 5 other teams in the MVC, could go deep this year. Remember, last year the Shockers "shocked" the world and went to the Sweet 16 only to fall to George Mason. Air Force, to me, is the one mid-major team that could go to the Final 4 if everything broke right for them. They start 4 Seniors and a Junior, which is usually a recipe for success in the tourney, they play the "Princeton" offense that always gives opponents headaches, and they have an NBA Coach. The Falcons have beaten Stanford, Miami, Texas Tech, and Colorado (all on the road) by 25 points or more. The only loss they have this year is to Duke, which isn't embarassing at all. As for both Winthrop and Oral Roberts, I believe they are #14 or #15 seeds in the Tournament who can win a game, that's it but considering they come from small conferences like the Big South and the Mid-Continent, that would be impressive. Winthrop has taken UNC and Wisconsin down to the wire and Oral Roberts, of course, had that amazing win over Kansas on the road.

So, it's still early on and big-named teams are still playing cupcakes before conference play so names on this list will inevitably change but as of now, this is what I think. Hopefully, I am right about Duke though =)