One Year Too Late

Tomorrow night at MSG, Duke will play Gonzaga in their first ever meeting. In the Coach K Era, Duke is 5-0 against the West Coast Conference. Although it's a very tough game on paper, I love the matchups for Duke. One of the things that has plagued Duke, especially since Paulus arrived on campus, is dribble penetration by the opposing point guard. Luckily for Paulus, Ravio is not that type of point guard. He's not going to dazzle you with his quickness and even if he does penetrate, he is a shoot first, pass second point guard, which bodes well for the shot blockers in the paint. Heytfelt killed UNC and the vastly overrated Hansborough because he stepped him away from the basket most of the game. McRoberts, unlike Hansborough, not only can play away from the basket but he prefers it.

Gonzaga has been a jekyl and hyde team most of the season. They have notched some really impressive wins against North Carolina, Texas, and Washington, all ranked opponents and they beat all of them pretty badly despite what the scoring margin claims. They have, however, lost 3 games, all to lesser opponents: Butler at the Garden (Butler is good but Gonzaga should've beaten them after a big win against UNC), Washington State, where they collapsed in the final 2 minutes, and most recently, Georgia on the road.

So, basically the question is: Which Gonzaga team will show up? They don't have that go-to guy, like Duke this year, to stop the bleeding. Last year, they had that in Morrison and if he missed, he would cry. After last night's defensive debacle, I can't imagine that Duke will be giving up open looks from 3-point range again, which is a good thing for Duke and could mean a long night for Ravio. Even though I've mentioned Heytfelt and Ravio, the guy who will win or lose the game for them will be Sean Mallon. He's the type of guy Duke has struggled with in the past. If they don't keep him off the glass and they need to because he's the windex man, then those 2nd and 3rd opportunities will doom Duke. Also, Duke must execute their half court offense against the 2-3 zone much better than they have because they will see it a lot tomorrow night. Few is an excellent coach and he knows there is a lack of perimeter shooting on this team and there isn't a guard who can consistently penetrate that zone and get to the basket.

Sidenote: Coach K, in his press conference, announced that Pocius got hurt during the Kent State game and his status for tomorrow is in question. Even though he hasn't logged a lot of meaningful minutes this year, it's important to have some sort of depth playing two games in two nights. Again, my prediction is that Duke will pull it out because Coach K will place extra emphasis on the defense that abandoned them against Kent State.

Duke 66 Gonzaga 63