Monday, February 18, 2008

Fa-Teague'd

The 12 game winning streak is gone. The lofty #2 ranking should be in their rear view mirror. More importantly, for the first time this season, Duke was outplayed, outhustled, and outexecuted by their opponent.

Congratulations to Wake Forest on a terrific victory and to Dino Gaudio for developing a tremendous gameplan to beat the Devils. You know those kids wanted this one badly for Skip Prosser. The Deacons used their quickness to make it a North-South game and not an East-West game. Duke had previously run out to a 22-1 record because they exposed teams that tried to beat them East-West, which usually winds up failing against their tremendous ball pressure. However, on Sunday Night, the Deacs used their speed in the backcourt to constantly penetrate and hit layups or penetrate to open shooters.

All the talk has been how good Kyle Singler has been as a freshman and that he was probably the choice for ACC ROY. However, he was outplayed by two of Wake's freshmen last night, James Johnson and Jeff Teague. Teague penetrated at will and got any shot he wanted and when James Johnson realized that he should live down low and not on the perimeter, he also dominated the undersized Dukies. The two magnificent diaper dandies accounted for 50 of Wake's 86 points in victory.

Getting back to the North-South gameplan. Can you remember one play, just one play, where Wake tried a cross court pass? I really can't. So, the gameplan or blueprint is out there to effectively beat Duke so how will they adjust to this bump in the road? Everyone knows that they have a disadvantage down low but they have done a marvellous job at exploiting that same mismatch on the offensive end with Kyle Singler on the perimeter. However, if you couple the size advantage with quick and athletic guards that continually penetrate, you will beat the Blue Devils or at the very lest, be there at the end of the game.

As for Duke, they played a very sub par game and for the most part, you can give Wake the credit for that but you can't give them credit for Dukes lack of hustle. The one positive out of this game is Nolan Smith and his ability to penetrate at will. His performance last night should not only earn him minutes but he should steal some minutes from Jon Sheyer, who was absolutely dreadful last night. You couldn't have gotten a worse performance from Sheyer: 27 minutes, 0-8 from the field for 0 points and 3 turnovers. It appears for the second consecutive year that Sheyer is starting to hit a wall in February and if he's not shooting well or taking care of the ball, the consistent backcourt has to be Paulus and Smith, with Smith playing the point most of the time.

Gerald Henderson is not the same player he was during the season since he sustained that wrist injury against Carolina. If Duke has any shot of playing deep into March, they need Henderson to be 100%. Another huge problem for Duke is free throw shooting and this will inevitably hurt them down the stretch here. The problem is that the only two guys who have the ability to slash and get fouled are very bad free throw shooters, Nelson and Henderson. I will give Henderson a break because of his wrist but Nelson, for as good as he's been, is absolutely dreadful from the line.

BOX

Overall, it was a disappointing peformance for the Dukies but they have been dodging bullets all year and finally, a bad first half wound up costing them in the long run. Next up for Duke is Miami at Miami on Wednesday night, which should be another tough game. Given Duke's track record and Coach K's ability to motivate after a loss, I like Duke's chances to come out firing on all cyclinders. A-Rod may be in attendance as usual and you know Miami will be rocking when Duke comes to town but I love Duke's chances on Wednesday to bounce back.

Prediction: Duke 85 Miami 78

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