We are now two months into the college basketball season. Although we just started conference play, it's become clear to me that there are only four teams who can legitimately cut down the nets come March. This is not to say all of these teams will be in the Final 4 on the first weekend of April but I would be surprised if one of these four are NOT cutting down the nets this year.
1. North Carolina: As much as it pains me to say this, North Carolina has all of the ingredients to win a championship. They have a PG who can penetrate at will, good outside shooting with Ellington and Green and a dominate low-post presence who refuses to lose in Tyler Hansbrough. This team still has questions about their consistency on defense but their defense against NC State was flawless. I think this team is a lock to make it to the final weekend but I do believe the absence of Bobby Frasor, a consistent backup PG, will hurt them and keep them from winning it all.
2. Memphis: I know you can be a plant and get into Memphis and the Tigers aren't the smartest team in the nation but they are certainly the most athletic. Derrick Rose is a one and done PG who is supremely talented and will be a Top 3 pick this year in the NBA Draft. Chris Douglas Roberts is an excellent scorer and a combination of athletes on the wing and in the post will make Memphis virtually impossible to beat. Although Houston is much improved, there will be an investigation if Memphis doesn't run through the weak CUSA perfect. The only shot at a blemish before the NCAA Tournament is a late February meeting with Tennessee, who I believe has the chops, defensive intensity, and the scoring to beat the Tigers. However, the game is in Memphis so it will be a tall order for the Volunteers. With all that said, I think they will get picked off in the tournament if they go into it undefeated for two reasons: pressure and untested late in the year.
3. Kansas: To me, there isn't a weakness on this team. They don't shoot it from the outside as well as you would like so a good team could zone them and give them trouble. However, their inside game with Arthur and Jackson is supreme and their guard play is tremendous. Brandon Rush will only get better as well when he continues to recover from a knee injury. I don't like Bill Self in a big spot but as of today, January 14th, I believe the Jayhawks will cut down the nets in April because of their superior depth, experience, and inside play.
4. UCLA: UCLA sort of dropped out of the national spotlight when Texas went into Cali and shocked the Bruins. But, let's face it, the Bruins weren't healthy then and they still aren't at 100% but make no mistake, they have the defense and experience to finally cut down the nets this year. I love Howland as a coach, he's a flat out winner and he gets maximum effort from his team year in and year out. The two-headed monster of Collison and Westbrook is as good as it gets at the point, Josh Shipp has replaced Aaron Affalo seemlessly as the go-to guy and the X-factor this year will be Kevin Love, who has shown the ability to hit the 3. If Love can bring the big guys of UNC, Memphis, and Kansas out to the top consistently, UCLA can definitely get penetration and score. One question will need to be answered come tournament time: Do the Bruins have enough scoring to win? They didn't the past two years but Corey Brewer is in the NBA though...
Monday, January 14, 2008
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Just a few additions -
1) North Carolina, as we discussed, is definitely the most vulnerable of the 4. When Lawson is off the court, I see them struggling and I think they get picked off sooner than the final weekend. You're 100% right - the Frasor injury hurts them a lot.
2) For Memphis, they really need production from the two big guys - Dorsey and Dozier. If they get production from those two guys (not like the Dorsey no show against Oden), this team ishard to beat.
3) Kansas has the best defensive team in the nation. Their perimter players get after it like I haven't seen. I agree, Kansas is the favorite in my eyes as well and Arthur has a pro game on both ends now.
4) UCLA's x-factor is, IMO, Westbrook. He comes off the bench, but plays significant minutes and I can see him starting by the end of the year. I see him carrying part of the scoring load. I don't think UCLA has enough on the offensive end to compete for the championship though. Shipp is too streaky, Collison hasn't been impressive yet (due to injury yes, but hasn't looked good excpet for 1 2nd half) and Rolle is done for the year now. Mota-Real is a liability so Love is forced ot play major minutes.
I don't see any team underneath these 4 competing on the final weekend. Georgetown doesn't have the scoring and has to shoot an insanely high percentage to win. Pitt has too many injuries. Duke lacks size and front court depth. Tennessee is too erratic. DJ White will disappear in a game and kill Indiana's chances. WSU has to prove something to me in Pac-10 play. A&M is scary, but I need to see them run up against Kansas first to think they are in that class.
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