NC State Missing the Point

Going into the 2007-08 college basketball season, the question surrounding the ACC was: who would be the 2nd best team in the ACC? Obviously, North Carolina, returning Lawson and Ellington to go with Psycho T, were the odds on favorites to win the ACC.

However, the battle for preseason #2, seemed like a tough one, especially considering my choices seemed to be Duke or NC State. Duke was coming its worst season since the 1996 campaign, which coincidentally ended the same way, a first round exit at the hands of a mid-major with an undersized, speedy point guard (1996-Eastern Michigan-Earl Boykins, 2007-VCU-Eric Maynor). The Blue Devils finished a mediocre 8-8 in the ACC, earned a #6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and to boot, lost their best low-post presence, albeit the very underwhelming Josh McRoberts. In addition, Duke swung and missed in the Patrick Patterson sweepstakes, leaving Duke with a Kate Moss frontcourt - very thin with little muscle.

On the flipside, the Wolfpack were coming off a season that started off mediocre but ended with NC State playing great ball, making a last stitch effort in the ACC Tournament only to come up a few minutes short in the title game, and then a very productive NIT. Take that into consideration, along with JJ Hickson, a McDonald's All-American, coming to Raleigh and you had the recipe for a very good team. One problem? They lost Engin Atsur to graduation. Atsur missed a third of the season last year and the Wolfpack were pitiful and clueless without him. When he returned, he proved to be the perfect compliment to an incredible array of young post players, specifically Ben McCauley and Brandon Costner, who some believe may be in the witness protection program this year because he's been an absolute no-show.

The absence of Atsur left me skeptical on how good this team would really be. However, I never thought in a million years that they would've limped out to a 13-6 record with horrible losses to New Orleans (no, not the Chris Paul-led Hornets), Eastern Carolina, and at home to Georgia Tech, which was desperate for a win at that point in the season. I mean they do have good wins against Villanova (on a BS last second foul call), Davidson (an impressive mid-major squad led by Stephon "Don't call me Dell" Curry) and Big East up and comers Cincy and Seton Hall.

Many people believe Duke will dominate this game. I do not. I believe they will win because they can take advantage of State's lack of ball handling ability and do the usual, force turnovers and turn it into easy points. However, if State can consistently get the ball down low, watch out. They have a number of gifted post players including the freshman JJ Hickson who is a physical specimen that Duke could only dream of having in their front court this year. I think Duke's pressure defense, ability to play the passing lanes, and of course, the home crowd will get them a W but it should be hard fought and not decided until late in the game.

Prediction: Duke 80 NC State 76