Revenge Game

Remember this?

I know we all do...

Before the game, you figured there was no way Florida State would beat Duke that day. Too much was working against them. Duke was coming off of a loss and traditionally, they bounce back quite well, FSU had never beaten Duke at Cameron in their history, and oh yeah, Duke was retiring JJ Redick's jersey that day. All of which, apparently didn't rattle the Seminoles and they came in and beat Duke. Afterwards, they celebrated like classless individuals and were taunting the crazies.

The questions arises 11 months later: Can Duke exact some revenge from last year? I think they have a really good shot. A few things have changed since last year's game. First, the poster boy for Dukes mediocrity last year, Josh McRoberts, is long gone and is currently in Potatoe country playing in the D-league. Second, the Duke killer, Al Thorton, is currently on the LA Clippers. I held off my prediction for this game because I didn't know enough about FSU but here is what I know...

FSU is 12-5 and their biggest wins are: Florida at home, Minnesota at home, and G Tech at home, all of which, aren't exactly resume builders for March so this Duke game is very important for them. They have some terrible losses as well: Cleveland State at home and South Florida at home. The other losses were at Butler (good loss), at Providence, which isn't terrible, and a 2OT loss to Clemson on the road a few nights ago. In fact, they had that Clemson game won until Trevor Booker hit a bank 3 at the buzzer to force OT.

They have very balanced scoring with 5 guys averaging in double figures. They, like Duke, have strong guard play with Rich, Swann, and leading scorer, Toney Douglas. They, like Duke, don't seem to have much size. The tallest guy in their rotation is 6'9'', which is a good thing for Duke.

Duke has lost 2 of the last 3 to FSU and the only win was a controversial 97-96 OT thriller when Alexander Johnson fouled out with 10 minutes left even though he really shouldn't have. FSU's athleticism has always given Duke problems, even when Duke was the much superior team. In 2002, FSU absolutely stunned an undefeated, defending national champion team at home. This was a landmark win for the FSU program and really foreshadowed the eventual demise of Duke that year, exposing Jason Williams' free throw shooting. The following year, they upset a less talented Duke team (JJ frosh year) and in 2006, they upset #1 Duke and National POY JJ Redick, a game that ended with Coach K pulling his starters off the court prior to the buzzer due to safety concerns.

So, although I think Duke is better than they were last year and FSU is weaker (how can you not be without Thorton?) than they were last year, Leonard Hamilton always has them ready to play Duke and they are never intimidated by the tradition and ora of the program. Also, even though it's two months into the year already, this is duke's first real road game. How will they respond? I think Duke pulls it out in the final minutes and gets a measure of revenge in a place they never seem to win at anymore...

Prediction: Duke 84 FSU 81